Nikola Jokić Is the MVP—Whether He Cares or Not

Besides Tim Duncan, it’s hard to say anyone’s ever been more unimpressed with their own aura than Nikola Jokić. If he were fluent in arbitrary internet superlatives, he might dismiss the idea that he even has one. Even through a championship run and three MVPs, it’s a narrative throughline (read: a meme) that’s persisted with Trumpian resiliency. Jokić might be the first center to average a triple-double, but deep down, he’d rather be brushing one of his majestic steeds at his Serbian horse stable. He might be an all-star starter for the rest of his career, but to him, such games are mere segues to a nice long sit. Maybe he catches a horse race. Maybe a quick liter of Coca-Cola. He misses those things, right? 

In a post-Michael Jordan world, Jokić is a crystalline anti-mythologist. His play—a supernatural blend of depraved shot-making and skip passes that seem to teleport through space—does the myth-making for him. It’s the stuff of legends, but he’s not the type to sit around listening to them. It’s a shame, because the latest chapter might be the most compelling yet. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have a strong case of his own, but if voters can get past their Jokić fatigue, the story might simply be titled: “Nikola Jokić Wins His Fourth MVP in Five Years.”

It’s a should-be eventuality rooted in just about every data point you can misuse. Box score stats don’t tell the whole story. But they’re a lot of it, and Jokić has reached surface-level statistical peaks that even the most detached sports fans have no choice but to comprehend. At press time, Jokić is third in the league in scoring, averaging 30 points per game on an incomprehensible 58 percent from the floor. Just as impressive is his 41.5% mark from long range. Through his first nine seasons, he’d proven to be a Dirk Nowitzki-esque midrange scorer with Kevin McHale’s post game. It’s a combination that made him an unstoppable scorer. Now, he’s making 41.5 percent of his three-pointers while shooting a high enough volume—nearly five a game—to prove he’s a legitimate marksman. He’s gone from the hardest crossword to a military grade firewall enhanced by alien technology. And that’s just the buckets. 

You want rebounds? He’s tied with Karl-Anthony Towns for second in the league at 12.8. You want assists? He’s second there, too. He’s averaging 10.2 dimes a game to Trae Young’s 11.6. In themselves, those averages are kind of unfathomable. But in a vacuum, they’re actually underselling themselves. KAT averages six points less than Jokić as the New York Knicks’ second option, who finishes plays more than he creates them. Despite soaking up far more defensive attention, Jokić scores more points efficiently while averaging more than three times KAT’s assists. Ice Trae might average 1.4 more assists, but he’s turning the ball over 30% more than Jokić while averaging six fewer points on below league average scoring efficiency; Young’s field goal percentage (41%) is technically among the lowest in the entire league. Jokic has the 9th highest, and of the eight ahead of him, only Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging over 20 points per game. He leads Jokić in scoring by four-tenths of a point, but he’s also averaging nearly one less rebound. While Jokić will never approach Giannis’ defensive presence, he bests him in the steals department; at 1.8 per game, he’s second in the league in steals behind only the Atlanta Hawks’ Dyson Daniels, who averages nearly 16 fewer points. Remember when defense was supposed to be his weakness? SGA, the leading favorite for the 2024-2025 MVP race, averages more points, but does so on worse efficiency while collecting nearly eight less rebounds and averaging nearly four fewer assists. 

Jokić is averaging 30 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists with 1.8 steals and .7 blocks per game on 57.7/41.5/80 splits. Even though he’s scoring and dishing at historical levels, he’s still only averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. He’s doing everything with the rock—except mishandling it. People might have tried to downplay it when Jokić's teammate Russell Westbrook did it in several consecutive seasons, but the fact remains: he’s averaging a triple-double. Of all the players averaging over 13 points per game, Jokić has the highest true shooting mark at 66.3%. When considering his volume, field goal percentage, and low turnover rate, Jokić is scoring better than the best scorers, passing better than the best passers, and rebounding better than the best rebounders. He isn’t just doing everything his team needs him to do; he’s doing everything his team needs him to do more efficiently than should be possible. 

All that, and he probably doesn’t even remember he had a 60-point triple-double last week. He was probably too busy thinking about the fields of his native Sombor and the pretty ponies his adorable daughter will enjoy one day. That, and the fact that his co-star Jamal Murray has only played four of the Nuggets’ last 10 games due to a hamstring injury. Or the fact that the Nuggets just fired both their head coach and general manager last week. 

The sudden dysfunction—or at least the surfacing of it—only intensifies the instability wrought by Murray’s injury. Or rather, injuries. If he misses this year’s playoffs due to an injury, it will be the third time that’s happened in five seasons, three of which have been MVP runs from perhaps the most statistically dominant offensive force the world has ever seen in any sport. At the beginning of the season, Nuggets front office execs spoke of a 10-year plan for Jokić's prime. They admitted that, despite the 2023 championship, it hadn’t exactly been successful. If advanced stats—which somehow paint Jokić's dominance even more favorably than raw box stats—are to be believed, that history of relative failure is about to continue. 

As noted by Andy Bailey, the Nuggets have a 63.1 true shooting percentage when Jokić is on the floor. That’s two percentage points better than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who boast the league’s best offense. It’s four percentage points better than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who sit at 59 TS%. The Nuggets’ 63.1 TS% drops nearly nine percentage points to 54.8 when he heads to the bench. This season, the league average for true shooting sits at 57.6. The on/off numbers back up the dropoff; this season, Jokić leads the entire league with a 20.1 on/off differential.

Basically, they’re a top 3 team when he’s on the court. When he’s off? They make the Charlotte Hornets look almost competent.

Great as SGA is—and 32.7 points, 5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1 block per game on about 64 TS% is Michael Jordan-level incredible—his impact falls well short of Jokić. As The Ringer notes, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 2.9 net rating when Shai is off the floor. That number would still make them nearly a top 10 team when he’s kicking it on the bench, contemplating his next fatality. Turns out having a league-best team full of All-NBA level defenders and two legitimate all-stars like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren goes a long way. You can note the difference in win total—OKC has 66 to Denver’s 48—but it comes down to this: one MVP candidate is playing on a superteam. The other is lifting an otherwise lottery-bound squad to a playoff homecourt advantage slot in the incredibly competitive West.

Wins are wins. But if this were a vertical jump, wherein players’ leaping ability is measured by the upward distance they travel instead of maximum reach, Jokić would, for once, have more bounce than SGA. Actually, he’d have more bounce than anyone. Ever. 

In Basketball Reference’s expansive database for box score plus/minus (BPM)—which measures the advantage an individual player gives a team when he’s in the game—Jokić sits at No. 1 all time with a career average BPM of 10.27. He’s ahead of Michael Jordan (9.21). LeBron James, too (8.53). MJ’s career-high 13. LeBron’s is 13.2. Beginning with his second MVP season, Jokić has met or exceeded those marks three times. For the last five seasons, he’s averaged BPM of 13.1. 

It all feels inconceivable. But it’s no harder to believe than the sum of Jokić's individual attributes. Looking at his skills is like building an all-time Create-A-Player they wouldn’t even let you build in NBA 2K50; the three-level scoring of Kevin Durant, the playmaking of Magic Johnson. The post moves of Hakeem Olajuwon. A Jordanian knack for delivering in the clutch, but the unflappability of someone who’s, respectfully, probably never wanted to be like Mike. Or anyone. 

Per ESPN’s last straw poll, SGA is the very likely winner of the 2024-2025 NBA MVP Award. If so, salute to one of the finest seasons any guard has ever completed. Jokić has three MVPs, and given the ground-bound nature of his game, he seems built to age gracefully into a fourth. 

If he does happen to get this year’s trophy, here’s to hoping he takes a moment to enjoy it. Soak up the sun. Kick back. Maybe have a Coke.